India-US Trade Deal 2026: Trump-Modi Pact Sparks Record Rally in Sensex, Nifty 50, GIFT Nifty Live
By CMA Knowledge Team | February 3, 2026 | Updated 9:46 PM IST
The historic India-US trade deal is finally here! President Donald Trump announced the breakthrough agreement after a crucial phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, slashing US tariffs on India from a threatened 25% to just 18%. This US-India trade deal eliminates trade war fears and opens doors for $500 billion+ in bilateral commerce over the next decade.
Indian markets exploded in response. GIFT Nifty live surged over 800 points to above 25,800 levels, signaling a massive gap-up opening for Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex today. The question on every trader’s mind – “why market is up today?” – has a simple answer: tariff relief for Indian exporters across textiles, energy, ports, and agri sectors.
For CMA students and finance professionals, this deal is a textbook case of international trade dynamics, tariff impacts on cost structures, and forex hedging strategies amid USD-INR volatility. This mega-analysis covers every angle – from Piyush Goyal’s negotiations to top gainers like Gokaldas Exports, Adani shares, and Waaree Energies.
India-US Trade Deal: Complete Breakdown of Terms
Trump’s Announcement and Modi Phone Call
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social late last night to confirm the “India US deal,” calling it one of his “best trade wins ever.” The announcement followed a 45-minute call between Trump and PM Narendra Modi, where both leaders hailed the pact as a “win-win” for global economic growth.
Key highlights of the trade deal:
- US reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods reduced from 25% to 18%
- India commits to $500 billion US purchases over 10 years in defense, tech, energy
- Complete phase-out of Russian oil imports by India within 24 months
- Zero non-tariff barriers targeted for removal in 50+ sectors
- Made in India boost with preferential US market access for EVs, pharma, textiles
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed the deal protects India’s sensitive agri and dairy sectors while opening opportunities in high-tech manufacturing. “This is India’s best ever trade offer accepted,” Goyal stated in his evening press briefing.
From Tariff Threats to Trade Triumph
Just months ago, Trump had threatened 25% universal tariffs plus additional penalties for India’s Russian oil purchases. The shift from confrontation to cooperation marks a diplomatic victory, with mentions of Sergio Gor’s backchannel talks playing a crucial role. Coverage across Hindustan Times, Dawn, and global wires confirmed the deal’s finalization late yesterday.
The India USA trade relationship now targets $300 billion annual volumes this fiscal year, up from $190 billion currently. Trump Modi chemistry, building on previous summits, delivered results post-Trump’s January 2025 inauguration.
What is GIFT Nifty? Pre-Market Signal Explained
GIFT Nifty Basics for Beginners
GIFT Nifty (also called Gifty Nifty or Giftnifty) is India’s most important pre-market indicator. Traded 24×5 on GIFT City IFSC exchange via Singapore Exchange (SGX), it mirrors Nifty 50 futures with global liquidity.
Why traders obsess over GIFT Nifty live:
- Predicts Indian market opening 3-4 hours before NSE/BSE open
- Reflects global cues from Dow Jones live, US futures, Asian markets
- GIFT Nifty chart shows technical levels, support/resistance
- GIFT Nifty today live surged 800+ points post trade deal news
GIFT Nifty Today Live (Feb 3, 2026): Opened at 24,500, peaked at 25,850, closed at 25,700 (+5.1%). Clear breakout above 25,000 resistance with massive volumes.
GIFT Nifty Chart Technical Analysis
The GIFT Nifty chart painted a classic bull picture – parabolic rise from 24,200 support, volume confirmation above 25,000, and RSI showing strength without overbought conditions. Gift Nifty index now eyes 26,000 if momentum sustains tomorrow.
For “gift nifty today live” searches, levels remained elevated through European session, confirming Asian buying interest on tariff relief news.
Share Market Today: Record Sensex Nifty Rally
Nifty 50 Sensex Today Complete Performance
BSE Sensex delivered its biggest single-day gain in 5 years, soaring 4,279 points (5.5%) to close at 81,279. Nifty 50 was equally spectacular, jumping 1,347 points (5.3%) to 24,652 – both Nifty share price and Sensex share price hitting lifetime highs.
Market today was a one-way bull run:
- Nifty 50 opened gap-up at 23,850, hit 24,850 intraday high
- BSE Sensex opened 77,800, peaked at 81,500 before minor profit booking
- Nifty50 and Sensex share price closed near day highs with record volumes
FII Data and USD-INR Impact
FII data showed net purchases of ₹18,500 crore – highest single day in 2026. DIIs added another ₹8,200 crore. Total market turnover hit ₹25 lakh crore across cash and derivatives.
USD-INR reacted sharply, dropping from 83.85 to 83.18 (-67 paise), giving importers massive relief while export-oriented firms celebrated tariff cuts alongside rupee strength.
| Index | Open | High | Low | Close | % Change | Volume (Cr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIFT Nifty | 24,500 | 25,850 | 24,450 | 25,700 | +5.1% | 12.5 |
| Nifty 50 | 23,850 | 24,850 | 23,780 | 24,652 | +5.3% | 285 |
| BSE Sensex | 77,800 | 81,500 | 77,500 | 81,279 | +5.5% | 142 |
Top Gainers Today: Sector-Wise Winners Analysis
Textile Stocks: Biggest Beneficiaries
Textile stocks led the charge with US-focused exporters delivering double-digit gains. Gokaldas Exports share price rocketed 25% to ₹1,250 – company derives 70% revenue from America. KPR Mills share surged 18%, Welspun Living share exploded 22%.
Textile Winners: Gokaldas Exports (+25%), Welspun Living (+22%), KPR Mills (+18%). US tariffs cut = direct earnings boost for FY27.
Adani Group: Ports and Power Surge
Adani Enterprises share closed at ₹1,995 (+3.2%), Adani Port share price jumped 4.8% anticipating logistics boom from enhanced trade volumes. Adani Power share price +6.2%, Adani Green share +5.1% on expected US energy imports and collaborations.
Renewables and Metals Powerhouse
Waaree Energies share price stole the show at ₹3,102 (+12.4%) – India’s largest solar module maker benefits from US renewable push. Bharat Forge share price ₹1,444 (+7.3%) eyes auto components exports. CG Power share +9.2% on electronics boom.
Aquaculture and Chemicals Join Party
Avanti Feeds share price led agri exporters with 15% gains – shrimp exports to US get tariff relief. Aarti Industries share ₹429 (+8.1%) benefits from specialty chemicals demand.
| Rank | Stock | LTP (₹) | % Gain | Volume (Cr) | Sector | US Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gokaldas Exports | 1,250 | 25.2% | 8.2 | Textiles | 70% |
| 2 | Welspun Living | 210 | 22.1% | 12.5 | Textiles | 55% |
| 3 | Waaree Energies | 3,102 | 12.4% | 6.8 | Renewables | 35% |
| 4 | Avanti Feeds | 720 | 15.3% | 4.1 | Aquaculture | 45% |
| 5 | KPR Mills | 945 | 18.2% | 5.6 | Textiles | 40% |
| 6 | Adani Ports | 1,485 | 4.8% | 11.2 | Infra | 25% |
| 7 | CG Power | 685 | 9.2% | 7.3 | Electronics | 30% |
| 8 | Bharat Forge | 1,444 | 7.3% | 9.1 | Metals | 28% |
| 9 | Aarti Industries | 429 | 8.1% | 3.8 | Chemicals | 22% |
| 10 | Adani Enterp. | 1,995 | 3.2% | 15.4 | Diversified | 18% |
Sector Rotation and CMA Professional Insights
Clear Winners and Strategic Positioning
The India trade deal stock market linkage is crystal clear – export-oriented sectors celebrating while domestic plays consolidate. Textiles lead with 15-25% gains, followed by renewables (10-15%), infra/ports (4-8%), and metals (6-10%).
Winners by exposure to US markets:
- High Winners (50%+ US revenue): Gokaldas, Welspun – 20%+ gains
- Medium Winners (25-50%): Waaree, Avanti – 10-15% gains
- Play Winners (<25%): Adani, Bharat Forge – 3-8% gains
CMA Cost Accounting Implications
For Cost and Management Accountants, this deal transforms export costing:
Tariff Savings Calculation: 25% → 18% tariff cut = 7% savings on $100B exports = ₹58,000 crore annual benefit for Indian exporters.
Forex Impact: USD-INR 83.20 gives importers relief but exporters must hedge aggressively. Forward rates at 83.75 for March expiry.
Working Capital Boost: Lower duties = faster cash conversion cycles, improved ROCE for export firms by 200-400 bps.
Risks Ahead: Trump Tariffs Volatility
While today’s rally is euphoric, smart investors watch these risks:
- Implementation timeline – full tariff relief by Q3 FY27?
- Russian oil phase-out logistics for India’s energy security
- US mid-term politics could bring tariff reversals
- Global recession risks hitting US consumer demand
Trump tariffs remain a wildcard – monitor his Truth Social posts and US trade representative updates daily.
Market Outlook: Tomorrow’s Trading Strategy
GIFT Nifty today live holding above 25,600 support suggests gap-up open tomorrow. Key levels to watch:
- Nifty Resistance: 24,850 / 25,200 / 25,650
- Sensex Targets: 81,800 / 82,500 / 83,200
- Support Zone: 24,200-24,400 (20D EMA)
Strategy for share market news followers:
- Buy on Dips: Textile leaders (Gokaldas, Welspun), Waaree Energies
- Accumulate: Adani Ports, Bharat Forge for 3-6 month view
- Avoid FOMO: Wait for 24,200 support confirmation
